I am an assistant professor in the Graduate Program in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering
(ORIE), which is within the Department of Mechanical Engineering, at The University of Texas at Austin (CV
I also hold a courtesy appointment in the Department of Petroleum
and Geosystems Engineering (PGE). In addition to
these appointments, I am a fellow in the Center for International
Energy and Environmental Policy (CIEEP) and the Center for Petroleum
Asset Risk Management (CPARM).
I hold MS and
PhD degrees in
Engineering-Economic Systems from
. Before returning to academia, I was a senior engagement manager and co-director of
client education for Strategic Decisions Group.
My research and teaching interests are broadly focused in
the area of decision making under uncertainty. My primary
application area is in the energy arena. I am Chair of RPSEA's (a
DOE program) Ultra-deepwater Environmental, Safety, and
Regulatory Technical Advisory Committee. My research has been funded
by the NSF, DOE, NETL, and private companies. In 2009, I was
fortunate enough to be awarded an NSF CAREER grant.
My work has been featured in the New York Times
The Wall Street
, the Financial Times
, National Public Radio
in dozens of local and regional media sources. In addition, this
work is featured in the documentary
work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate Project and was
selected by a panel of economists, including four Nobel Laureates,
as the best response to climate change. You can learn more
. Here is my Internet Movie
Watch this Stanford/UT
webinar featuring my presentation on
You may have seen my research referenced by Evan Gattis (Atlanta
Braves) in the June 10, 2013, edition of Sports Illustrated.
If you are interested in decision making and baseball, watch this
webinar I gave as part of Stanford's Strategic Decision and Risk
Back in 1994-1995, while in
graduate school, I developed a
pitch/hit charting software program
called ChartMine. ChartMine was used
by over 300 colleges, including
one-third of Division 1 programs,
and ESPN. As
part of this effort, I wrote several
white papers regarding baseball
statistics and strategy. I still
receive emails asking for this work,
so I am posting a few of the papers
The Weather Channel Research
- On the Importance of Throwing Strikes.
- STATS Inc, and the Fallacy of Batting Average
by Count. PDF
- How well do you know baseball?
- Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type.
- Why it is so Hard to Hit 400.
- Teaching Decision Making with Baseball
- On the Decision to Take a Pitch.
Do you watch The Weather Channel and wonder how accurate their
precipitation forecasts are? This
paper summarizes my study of over
13 million precipitation forecasts. You can use the tables I include
below to convert The Weather Channel's precipitation forecasts into
observed frequencies. To use the tables you simply look up the
forecasted probability of precipitation (PoP) given by The Weather
Channel on the horizontal axis and then read down the rows to adjust
for the length of forecast. For example, a 5-day lead-time is a
forecast for 5 days from today.
Central (KY, IL, IN, MO, OH, TN, and WV):
East North Central (IA, MI, MN, and WI):
Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, and NY):
South (AK, LA, KS, MS, OK, and TX):
Southeast (AL, FL, GA, NC, SC, and VA):
Southwest (AZ, CO, NM, and UT):
West (CA and NV): Table
West North Central (MT, NE, ND, SD, and WY):