I am an associate professor and Area Coordinator in the Graduate Program in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering
(ORIE) at The University of Texas at Austin (CV
I also hold a courtesy appointment in the Department of Petroleum
and Geosystems Engineering (PGE). In addition to
these appointments, I am a fellow in the Center for International
Energy and Environmental Policy (CIEEP) and the Center for Petroleum
Asset Risk Management (CPARM).
I hold MS and
PhD degrees in
Engineering-Economic Systems from
. Before returning to academia, I was a senior engagement manager and co-director of
client education for Strategic Decisions Group,
where I remain on the Board of
My research and teaching interests are broadly focused in
the area of decision making under uncertainty, known as
decision analysis. My primary application area is in the
energy arena. My research has been funded
by the NSF, DOE, NETL, and private companies.
My work has been featured in the New York Times
The Wall Street
, the Financial Times
, National Public Radio
in dozens of local and regional media sources. In addition, this
work is featured in the documentary
work was part of the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate Project and was
selected by a panel of economists, including four Nobel Laureates,
as the best response to climate change. You can learn more
. Here is my Internet Movie
What is Decision Analysis?
Decision analysis (DA) is a theory and set of methodologies to help
individuals and organizations make high-quality decisions in complex
and uncertain environments. DA was developed in mid-1960s by a
collection of researchers and practitioners broadly associated with
Stanford University, Harvard University and, to some extent, MIT.
Decision analysts work in variety of industries but tend to
specialize in large one-of-a-kind decisions involving significant
capital (i.e., investments exceeding US$1 billion) and significant
uncertainty and risk.
If you want to learn more, watch this short
the Executive Vice-Chairman of Chevron regarding their use of
decision analysis. You might also be interested in this Stanford/UT
webinar featuring my presentation on
How Can I Obtain a Degree in Decision Analysis?
Within the ORIE program we offer both MS and PhD Concentrations in
Decision Analysis. Please see these links for information regarding
programs. Both programs include the ability to take several
electives, which are listed
here. If you are not an ORIE student, you may obtain a
Certificate in Decision Analysis by following the program detailed
You may have seen my research referenced by Evan Gattis (Atlanta
Braves) in the June 10, 2013, edition of Sports Illustrated.
Back in 1994-1995, while in
graduate school, I developed a
pitch/hit charting software program
called ChartMine. ChartMine was used
by over 300 colleges, including
one-third of Division 1 programs,
and ESPN. As
part of this effort, I wrote several
white papers regarding baseball
statistics and strategy. I still
receive emails asking for this work,
so I am posting a few of the papers
If you are interested in decision making and baseball, watch this
webinar I gave as part of Stanford's Strategic Decision and Risk
- On the Importance of Throwing Strikes.
- STATS Inc, and the Fallacy of Batting Average
by Count. PDF
- How well do you know baseball?
- Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type.
- Why it is so Hard to Hit 400.
- Teaching Decision Making with Baseball
- On the Decision to Take a Pitch.
The Weather Channel Research
Do you watch The Weather Channel and wonder how accurate their
precipitation forecasts are? This
paper summarizes my study of over
13 million precipitation forecasts that was featured in Nate
Silver's book The Signal and the Noise. You can use the tables I include
below to convert The Weather Channel's precipitation forecasts into
observed frequencies. To use the tables you simply look up the
forecasted probability of precipitation (PoP) given by The Weather
Channel on the horizontal axis and then read down the rows to adjust
for the length of forecast. For example, a 5-day lead-time is a
forecast for 5 days from today.
Central (KY, IL, IN, MO, OH, TN, and WV):
East North Central (IA, MI, MN, and WI):
Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, and NY):
South (AK, LA, KS, MS, OK, and TX):
Southeast (AL, FL, GA, NC, SC, and VA):
Southwest (AZ, CO, NM, and UT):
West (CA and NV): Table
West North Central (MT, NE, ND, SD, and WY):